CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Aurora vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb887f29814b9eda8ddaef7351113f87fabacb7650a83f7433c49836845d1ba6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7600…4478backed Aurora | 37c | 8,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,040 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked NIP | 62c | 7,378$4,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,568.03 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked NIP | 51c | 4,274$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.81 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Aurora | 49c | 3,140$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.37 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Aurora | 51c | 1,966$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.79 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed NIP | 37c | 1,876$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.22 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Aurora | 56c | 1,257$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.18 | 150 | 46%69 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Aurora | 49c | 1,251$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.34 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed NIP | 10c | 1,200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked NIP | 50c | 1,185$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.48 | 1,619 | 45.5%737 W · 882 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed NIP | 49c | 1,159$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.55 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Aurora | 71c | 1,075$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Aurora | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed NIP | 50c | 557.47$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.97 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Aurora | 76c | 500$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed NIP | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Aurora | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked NIP | 24c | 302.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked NIP | 33c | 296.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked Aurora | 72c | 278.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Aurora | 56c | 268.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.13 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed NIP | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 634 | 45.3%287 W · 347 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed NIP | 50c | 155$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked NIP | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…a361backed Aurora | 50c | 125.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Aurora | 50c | 124$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked NIP | 46c | 109.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Aurora | 58c | 107$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 422 | 57.3%242 W · 180 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Aurora | 50c | 104.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked NIP | 61c | 100.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Aurora | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Aurora | 50c | 78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…bdc9backed NIP | 39c | 63.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed NIP | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed NIP | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…9a3dbacked NIP | 60c | 58.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3c…0ab0backed Aurora | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Aurora | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Aurora | 46c | 42.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Aurora | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…2844backed Aurora | 46c | 39.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +6.0wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Aurora | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c24…0f25backed Aurora | 46c | 37.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…2444backed Aurora | 45c | 32.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Aurora | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked NIP | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 826 | 46.2%382 W · 444 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Aurora | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked NIP | 52c | 28.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…9191backed NIP | 64c | 27.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…a514backed Aurora | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf043…61d9backed Aurora | 72c | 24.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked NIP | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Aurora | 50c | 22.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed Aurora | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…4cd5backed NIP | 52c | 20.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.