MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8a702efd4b6f92e6b39c7e296ee85ddff2aaaf602ffdcea528e23288ea008ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 512.52$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 290$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 204.16$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 101.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 93.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 33.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 33.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 22.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.