MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fdce1bc706a9dc2cbaf3549cf09df352724c03a61e530bfcec406dcc59a42d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 9,864$5,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,381.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 41c | 7,892$3,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,235.72 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 5,075$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,109.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 35c | 3,354$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.95 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 72c | 2,228$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 46c | 1,651$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.46 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 54c | 1,048$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.24 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…68f7backed Under | 55c | 909$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.41 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 71c | 686.79$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 545$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 43c | 499.24$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.29 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 419.62$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 56c | 390.58$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 64c | 270.31$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 55c | 246.8$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 71c | 235.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 223.38$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 30c | 203.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Over | 45c | 192.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 57c | 172.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 15c | 160$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 69c | 145.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 56c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 54c | 105.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 78c | 98.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 45c | 95.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Over | 21c | 73.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 24c | 61.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 50c | 58.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 41c | 48.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 30c | 41.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 64c | 39.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 46c | 32.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc914…78a4backed Under | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 64c | 18.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…1a3bbacked Under | 77c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Under | 61c | 17.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.