MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc20f9a2ba56f1b784d2ed7062badf3029706d396f77937c892beff9a21b374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 37c | 38,224$14,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,143.05 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 63c | 29,762$18,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,011.9 | 441 | 54.2%239 W · 202 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 63c | 8,223$5,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,042.51 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.98 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 1,884$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.53 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 65c | 1,706$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.36 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 1,660$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.48 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 54c | 1,616$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.75 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 54c | 1,143$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.58 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 700.15$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.07 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 56c | 498.5$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 55c | 419.49$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.77 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 57c | 259.02$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 40c | 237.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…c304backed Over | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 54c | 165.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Over | 63c | 155.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b8…0f33backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 62c | 148.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 61c | 96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 94.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 54c | 85.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 63c | 80.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 38c | 77.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…ae12backed Over | 63c | 74.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 39c | 71.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Over | 59c | 61.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…7e53backed Under | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 55c | 53.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Under | 34c | 41.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 50c | 39.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…15a6backed Under | 35c | 37.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 50c | 35.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…dbcdbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 50c | 25.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 44c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 68c | 24.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 59c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.