MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x203ed6ff4bf14068912da3d8a6e6eeadd570e10effd9c34a330966219c0c1cff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 33c | 5,115$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,428.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 68c | 4,139$2,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,814.61 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf844…ee3cbacked Under | 41c | 1,780$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,615$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.4 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 1,368$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,039$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.18 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 993.13$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.91 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Over | 65c | 921.51$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 52c | 905.35$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.78 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 63c | 898$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.74 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 44c | 793.84$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.52 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 737.41$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 685.65$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked Under | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…1fadbacked Under | 48c | 543.7$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 63c | 442.83$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.54 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Under | 47c | 416$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.48 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 47c | 301.13$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.63 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 64c | 289.06$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Over | 56c | 270$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 45c | 247.36$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 229.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed Over | 53c | 228$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c5…ea99backed Over | 39c | 222.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Over | 39c | 212.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Over | 54c | 204.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 57c | 172.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 55c | 130.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 46c | 127.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 57c | 123.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 18c | 116.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 64c | 112.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 54c | 102.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 32c | 101.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Over | 51c | 96.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 31c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 63c | 89.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 62c | 89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 58c | 87.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 30c | 84.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Over | 53c | 58.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 52c | 51.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 63c | 50.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 51c | 46.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 63c | 44.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 42.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 50c | 41.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 61c | 33.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 61c | 33.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 31.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 69c | 31.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 61c | 27.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 47c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 46c | 24.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 65c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.