Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8c5afa7c5e48477450a7f596a0512a1618b094f321d0839c58f3b514226dac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 74c | 288.44$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 271.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 31c | 129.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed Yes | 61c | 128.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 66c | 119.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 77c | 116$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 36c | 115.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 16c | 114.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 26c | 106.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b38…2458backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 64c | 85.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…063ebacked No | 26c | 75.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 22c | 74.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 72c | 70.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 34c | 58.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 34c | 58.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 55.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc6…31bdbacked No | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…9639backed No | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 34c | 52.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 68c | 50.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…d51ebacked Yes | 64c | 47.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…f690backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 47c | 44.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 72c | 42.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…7c96backed Yes | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 57c | 39.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 52c | 34.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked No | 45c | 32.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…3d40backed Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 25.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…7b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 65c | 23.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef47…d43cbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.