Commodities · resolved market
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures (WTI) (CL=F) Up or Down on November 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8cd19af5f21e61c1a4691959c77b009bea3a4f154828121a262542401eb2ecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8936…d010backed Down | 40c | 502.19$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.15 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Down | 42c | 323.86$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.77 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Up | 59c | 287.4$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Down | 36c | 264.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…a072backed Down | 49c | 211.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Down | 8c | 130.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…1c2cbacked Up | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Up | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…4a13backed Up | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Down | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed Up | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Down | 78c | 72.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…252ebacked Up | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…b786backed Up | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…753bbacked Up | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc760…1761backed Down | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed Down | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Up | 49c | 41.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Up | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Down | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…50e9backed Up | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.