Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d050c0f3ff51ce23fe31bc956f2be628233caa1f48d727342662a12ca1b53b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22d7…608dbacked Yes | 30c | 289.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 252.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 201.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 198.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 7c | 196.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 9c | 194.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 182.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 152.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 39c | 147.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 10c | 145.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 10c | 138.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 125.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 120.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 18c | 119.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 114.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 19c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 108$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked Yes | 36c | 91.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 39c | 77.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 74.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 73.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 36c | 70.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 30c | 39.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 37.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 35c | 34.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 79c | 34.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 37c | 30.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 29.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 71c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.