Olympics · resolved market
Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d52bbb7646d2b6d72e35789e4788b5d7a6155e79e228e35ac72b4c615f4698
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,089,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $302,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,089,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 69,933$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.17 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338a…33e1backed Yes | 0c | 22,015$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…518cbacked Yes | 0c | 21,667$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…8c79backed Yes | 0c | 21,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…8cb7backed Yes | 1c | 19,270$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f3…df88backed Yes | 0c | 17,436$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…942cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,436$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…8f70backed Yes | 0c | 17,145$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0564…9481backed Yes | 0c | 15,690$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…f24abacked Yes | 0c | 15,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…56d1backed Yes | 0c | 15,140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,924$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…5570backed Yes | 0c | 13,641$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…9a37backed Yes | 0c | 13,012$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 1c | 12,858$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb916…eedfbacked Yes | 1c | 12,523$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2847…1912backed Yes | 1c | 12,405$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…16d8backed Yes | 0c | 12,210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…fe00backed Yes | 0c | 12,210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…c350backed Yes | 0c | 11,955$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b8…544fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,955$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b9…a39fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,812$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…ad52backed Yes | 0c | 11,755$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef52…90edbacked Yes | 0c | 11,616$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c2…4c94backed Yes | 0c | 11,208$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…d2e7backed Yes | 0c | 11,201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…86eabacked Yes | 0c | 11,106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…5da3backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 1c | 10,445$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…a3babacked Yes | 0c | 10,140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…f234backed Yes | 0c | 10,001$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…8531backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…2980backed Yes | 1c | 7,598$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 1c | 7,340$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e84…4332backed Yes | 0c | 7,269$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 1c | 7,214$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 7,173$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…1294backed Yes | 0c | 6,937$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…429fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,484$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1611…bd38backed Yes | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…d9d9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed Yes | 1c | 2,893$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573a…4f25backed Yes | 1c | 2,661$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…4761backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8b…7072backed Yes | 1c | 2,343$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 1c | 1,809$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…24fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,808$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…7a04backed Yes | 1c | 1,807$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…c712backed Yes | 1c | 1,437$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7b…9374backed Yes | 1c | 1,393$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?this page
- Another country wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?No won
- China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?No won
- France wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?No won
- Great Britain wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?No won
- USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.