Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb907f677d1a4574261607573593f9931f0bdcb48dd014d6e4fbc25aa4051904a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 690.52$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 604$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 435.6$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 48c | 387.18$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 19c | 308.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 289.1$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 273.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 50c | 250.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.97 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 28c | 240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 7c | 219.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed Yes | 29c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 47c | 194.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 49c | 175.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 33c | 173.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 165.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 15c | 159.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb80…d0e3backed Yes | 34c | 156.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 47c | 101.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 52c | 95.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 50c | 95.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 56c | 91.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…ba4dbacked Yes | 58c | 87.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 79.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…af44backed Yes | 24c | 78.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 15c | 77.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 73.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 59c | 70.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 70.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 66.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 75c | 59.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 74c | 58.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 19c | 55.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 49.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 62c | 48.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 39c | 48.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 47.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 53c | 43.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 48c | 43.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 27c | 40.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 78c | 39.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 51c | 36.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 35.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 77c | 31.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 50c | 28.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 72c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 60c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 76c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.