Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ca3250e95ca4a36ca3ed3af973f5e39285257d52804a6a3aeb4e76ad417107f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed No | 2c | 1,400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked No | 2c | 1,380$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 15c | 1,212$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.17 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 18c | 949.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.86 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 418.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 417.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 398.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 313.68$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 13c | 304.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.52 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 277.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 14c | 258.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.16 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 247.88$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 231$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 20c | 200$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.2 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb80…d0e3backed Yes | 13c | 188.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.03 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 8c | 176.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 13c | 157.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.03 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 150.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.41 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 143.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…7abbbacked Yes | 20c | 140.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 15c | 140.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 137.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 78c | 112.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 24c | 97.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 17c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…af44backed Yes | 16c | 83.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed No | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 44c | 70.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 74c | 68.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 64.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 43c | 55.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 26c | 46.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 41c | 45.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 41c | 43.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 34c | 36.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 39c | 35.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 78c | 32.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 30.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 72c | 25.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…9ff4backed No | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b345backed No | 79c | 14.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 69c | 14.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked No | 78c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…ba4dbacked No | 78c | 14.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.