Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9141f6388e8da7167424169f7c3d214385e86c5586cfa59b27712989bd6979d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 19c | 298$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 217.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 27c | 202.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 196.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 61c | 186.04$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 162.16$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 154.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 71c | 149$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 145.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 118.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 19c | 111.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 107.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 107.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 29c | 80.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 26c | 77.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 64.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 21c | 60.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 72c | 54.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 53.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 27c | 51.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 24c | 45.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 44c | 45.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 26c | 44.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 43.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 38.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 29.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 26.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 79c | 17.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 73c | 16.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.