Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb926e722390ea7d7ee24ca90732af11cac95b7539abd825e86301f70d849d961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiveof Hive, Team AION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdced…c799backed Hive | 50c | 8,800$4,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,429.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Hive | 53c | 3,102$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Team AION | 50c | 2,220$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.21 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Team AION | 47c | 1,375$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.25 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff8…5e5dbacked Team AION | 54c | 1,224$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.78 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Team AION | 50c | 1,126$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Team AION | 49c | 1,126$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Team AION | 50c | 1,058$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team AION | 33c | 992.37$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.51 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Team AION | 47c | 911.47$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.71 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Hive | 59c | 899.94$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.98 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Team AION | 50c | 716$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Team AION | 39c | 567.91$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.16 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Hive | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Team AION | 50c | 461.73$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.73 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Team AION | 48c | 410.17$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…88c3backed Team AION | 50c | 407.87$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.86 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team AION | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Team AION | 47c | 216$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Team AION | 33c | 204$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Team AION | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Team AION | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Team AION | 50c | 183.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Team AION | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afd…427ebacked Team AION | 49c | 120.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team AION | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…3943backed Hive | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4038…35e4backed Team AION | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4efd…02eabacked Team AION | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Team AION | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team AION | 49c | 50.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Hive | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Team AION | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Team AION | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group AHive won
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 1 WinnerHive won
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 2 WinnerHive won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.