Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5593428e97c420a0acc8533b05cbb4921e43b49319e3a19a18da78391121229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiveof Team AION, Hive
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team AION | 32c | 1,457$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.46 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ea…49e9backed Hive | 65c | 1,362$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Hive | 68c | 1,184$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.41 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…56e3backed Hive | 65c | 1,172$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Team AION | 35c | 958.23$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 704 | 33.1%233 W · 471 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Team AION | 34c | 695.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…5f07backed Hive | 58c | 679.54$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team AION | 35c | 635.92$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.56 | 906 | 38.4%348 W · 558 L | -40.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…1102backed Hive | 73c | 584.07$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Team AION | 38c | 560$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa5…4859backed Team AION | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team AION | 29c | 381.41$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Hive | 61c | 362.81$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Team AION | 32c | 307.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 714 | 43.1%308 W · 406 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team AION | 35c | 250.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1,914 | 47.6%911 W · 1,003 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Team AION | 33c | 234$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 262 | 48.1%126 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Team AION | 28c | 223.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 195 | 40.5%79 W · 116 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Team AION | 29c | 130.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team AION | 32c | 124.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,482 | 48.9%724 W · 758 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Team AION | 35c | 122.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Hive | 69c | 114.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Hive | 69c | 110.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Hive | 67c | 103.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Hive | 60c | 98.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Team AION | 45c | 89.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Hive | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 191 | 53.4%102 W · 89 L | +12.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Team AION | 23c | 73.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Hive | 72c | 69.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1,723 | 41.3%711 W · 1,012 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Team AION | 39c | 65.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Team AION | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…0be8backed Team AION | 18c | 59.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Team AION | 35c | 56.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Hive | 58c | 51.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Team AION | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…14e7backed Team AION | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team AION | 38c | 49.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,395 | 47.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…2d03backed Team AION | 40c | 48.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Hive | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Hive | 69c | 37.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Team AION | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Hive | 69c | 32.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Hive | 75c | 31.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 774 | 56.5%437 W · 337 L | +30.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Team AION | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group AHive won
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 2 WinnerHive won
- Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5)Hive won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.