Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1db4d212fdc33486b543a680d59b5c72947d4e285ce3d3f8ae5a6f767e9fc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiveof Team AION, Hive
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Hive | 75c | 2,754$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.11 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Team AION | 28c | 2,386$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.18 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team AION | 15c | 1,758$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.1 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team AION | 28c | 1,526$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.96 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Hive | 78c | 1,458$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.74 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Hive | 64c | 1,214$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.06 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Team AION | 25c | 1,201$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.26 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Team AION | 20c | 979.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa5…4859backed Hive | 77c | 506.09$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Team AION | 21c | 399.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Hive | 78c | 308.37$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Team AION | 13c | 306.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hive | 67c | 301$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Team AION | 23c | 287.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team AION | 12c | 277.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Team AION | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Team AION | 28c | 210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Hive | 64c | 206.16$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Hive | 74c | 189.71$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…1102backed Hive | 65c | 184.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Team AION | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…5f07backed Hive | 57c | 174.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Team AION | 39c | 157.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…18ffbacked Team AION | 39c | 157$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Team AION | 25c | 145$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hive | 76c | 141.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Hive | 71c | 135.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Hive | 61c | 122.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ce3cbacked Team AION | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Hive | 77c | 102.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Team AION | 14c | 101.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a7d2backed Team AION | 30c | 99.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…14e7backed Team AION | 35c | 95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Team AION | 31c | 92.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hive | 75c | 73.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Team AION | 38c | 73.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Hive | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8f39backed Team AION | 43c | 60.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked Team AION | 43c | 51.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…8745backed Hive | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Team AION | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Hive | 77c | 38.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Hive | 77c | 36.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f93dbacked Team AION | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Team AION | 45c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Hive | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Hive | 75c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Hive | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d93fbacked Hive | 62c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Hive | 71c | 19.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 194 | 40.7%79 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hive | 75c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Hive | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 1 WinnerHive won
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 2 WinnerHive won
- Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5)Hive won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.