Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c97891f136127354608d51909db7067f63a06cab358bd6d948f73b7b3117daf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiveof Team AION, Hive
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3ea…49e9backed Hive | 68c | 2,094$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdced…c799backed Team AION | 46c | 1,946$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Hive | 62c | 1,470$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.6 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Hive | 55c | 1,312$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.1 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Hive | 64c | 1,106$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.28 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…5f07backed Hive | 58c | 1,081$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Team AION | 38c | 1,074$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.47 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team AION | 30c | 1,062$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.21 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team AION | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…1102backed Hive | 77c | 809.36$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Hive | 64c | 776.58$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.38 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Team AION | 56c | 709.89$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Team AION | 46c | 658.93$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.14 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Hive | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Hive | 63c | 477.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team AION | 39c | 443.45$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.79 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked Team AION | 50c | 410$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team AION | 26c | 397.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Team AION | 41c | 373.44$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.93 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Hive | 60c | 358$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.36 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1a89backed Team AION | 47c | 354.05$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.18 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Team AION | 45c | 350.41$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Team AION | 30c | 270.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team AION | 33c | 269.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Team AION | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Hive | 49c | 223.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Team AION | 39c | 217.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team AION | 38c | 217.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Hive | 63c | 203.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Team AION | 45c | 203.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Team AION | 50c | 194.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…df1dbacked Hive | 50c | 146$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Team AION | 44c | 131.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa5…4859backed Team AION | 37c | 118.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Team AION | 29c | 104.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team AION | 30c | 94.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team AION | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Team AION | 32c | 82.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Team AION | 34c | 80.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed Hive | 50c | 79.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Team AION | 26c | 75.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 194 | 40.7%79 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Team AION | 40c | 72.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Team AION | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Hive | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Team AION | 29c | 51.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Team AION | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Team AION | 36c | 48.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Hive | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team AION | 44c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Hive | 75c | 34.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…14e7backed Team AION | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Team AION | 59c | 29.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Hive | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group AHive won
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Hive - Game 1 WinnerHive won
- Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5)Hive won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.