Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb94e7f5f75d3bf215207a9d2f4844a5dc25785ec39f8240f93ee40458dc4f251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 1c | 3,968$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 2,242$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,111$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 994.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 2c | 879.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 3c | 870.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 6c | 854.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 826.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 5c | 818.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0245…f964backed Yes | 10c | 814.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 3c | 651.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 3c | 536.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 4c | 467.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 406.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 384.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 370.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 3c | 367.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 8c | 288.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 287.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 256.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 10c | 253.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdd…f434backed Yes | 7c | 240.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 6c | 214.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 11c | 211.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 207.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 6c | 198.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 19c | 182.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 179.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 6c | 177.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 9c | 130.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…c751backed Yes | 12c | 123.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 19c | 112.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 79c | 99.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 19c | 74.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.