Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7788d1af2a163cc4f98b73423b39bcafc0f33bc17bfebd58fe7c25878cf0f7c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 643.86$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 76c | 513.81$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 420.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.68 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 419.68$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 22c | 413.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 402.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 387.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 379.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 357.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 350.23$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 21c | 325.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 290.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 79c | 258.33$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…e8b4backed Yes | 7c | 249.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 18c | 245.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 233.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 20c | 230.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 80c | 199.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 198.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 24c | 193.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 190.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 15c | 189.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 179.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 175.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 26c | 173.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 171.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 15c | 167.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 166.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 162.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 20c | 161.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 159.29$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 75c | 158$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 157.19$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 24c | 150.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 149.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 145.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 19c | 144.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 143.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 19c | 142.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 18c | 140.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 26c | 134.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 129.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…b708backed No | 76c | 128.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes | 24c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 78c | 107$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 11c | 102.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 12c | 99.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 98.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 38c | 97.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 20c | 97.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 95.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…b31ebacked Yes | 25c | 91.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 16c | 86.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 79c | 85.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…94acbacked Yes | 40c | 83.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 78c | 74.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 42c | 71.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 66.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes | 28c | 66.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 65.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 76c | 65.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 65.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 78c | 64.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 64.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 18c | 62.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 61.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…fca3backed No | 78c | 61.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 42c | 58.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f4…99bbbacked No | 79c | 57.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 24c | 50.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 47.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 26c | 47.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 46.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 79c | 44.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 80c | 44.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 26c | 42.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 37.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 79c | 36.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 29c | 36.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 80c | 36.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 29c | 35.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…b93dbacked No | 77c | 31.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 74c | 30.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 78c | 29.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…2f27backed No | 79c | 27.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…fdb9backed No | 79c | 24.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 73c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…f35abacked No | 80c | 19.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…9077backed No | 79c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cb04backed No | 78c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.