Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91a06c6753ccfbd29444bc3560cdd77d2aa762e71c642eeeb6ec111bc78e1e2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 40c | 2,317$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.66 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 63c | 936.19$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.3 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 892.95$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…7271backed Yes | 61c | 848.4$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 59c | 638.33$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.37 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 632.28$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.81 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 45c | 374.87$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 371.25$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 69c | 364.96$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 64c | 363.18$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 48c | 332.75$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.26 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 45c | 327.85$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…94acbacked Yes | 73c | 250.07$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 243.39$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 37c | 236.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 73c | 228.63$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 67c | 215.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.1 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 66c | 209.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 208.04$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 194.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 74c | 191.22$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652c…4229backed Yes | 47c | 189.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 34c | 170.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 162.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 41c | 162.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 158.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 151.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 67c | 141.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 26c | 140.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 52c | 137.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 49c | 137.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 29c | 132.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 123.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 122.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 16c | 120.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 40c | 118.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 39c | 118.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 52c | 115.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 71c | 113.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 111.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 54c | 110.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 109.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 59c | 108.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 107.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 98.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 38c | 95.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 37c | 95.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 74c | 92.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 91.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 85.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 84.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 82.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 82.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 58c | 81.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 32c | 78.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 61c | 77.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 25c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 30c | 74.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 67c | 73.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 66c | 73.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 72.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 68c | 70.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 42c | 66.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 63.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 62.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed Yes | 55c | 59.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…2f74backed Yes | 29c | 58.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes | 38c | 58.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 58.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 49c | 57.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…2f27backed No | 62c | 54.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 30c | 50.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 57c | 50.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 49.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 48.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 63c | 47.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 70c | 45.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 44c | 45.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 78c | 44.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 74c | 41.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 42c | 40.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1931…8950backed Yes | 30c | 40.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 67c | 39.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 38.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 67c | 38.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 68c | 38.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 51c | 37.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 50c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Yes | 50c | 36.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…2210backed Yes | 52c | 34.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 41c | 34.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.