Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25c3b003a1766b83c4afc56fb322aeb980eeddea6edc7d5e1acbc88c29a62c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x069e…4636backed Yes | 1c | 4,280$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 1c | 2,978$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,943$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,668$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 2c | 1,688$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,399$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,312$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,066$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,008$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 10c | 810.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 2c | 758.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 6c | 553.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 4c | 512.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 4c | 506.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 482.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…b17abacked Yes | 10c | 410.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 5c | 403.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked Yes | 3c | 400.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 7c | 351.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 7c | 329.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 318.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 8c | 311.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 285.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 6c | 278.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 7c | 272.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 7c | 249.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 6c | 244.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 7c | 200.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 172.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 9c | 134.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…b992backed Yes | 13c | 98.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 14c | 93.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e23…7896backed Yes | 13c | 92.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 14c | 91.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.