TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,058 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x100a…c6cebacked No2c3,865$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.32554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes13c1,632$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.790040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes19c1,611$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.9941845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No59c1,140$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.9519753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c847.1$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.676,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes13c639.91$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.220838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes32c518.41$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.415226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes17c488.82$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.764,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes15c421.59$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.781,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No75c379.64$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c359.98$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.5817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c359.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.97,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes15c354.71$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.18,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes15c330.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9323823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025c…5b44backed Yes27c309.7$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.876624.2%16 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes22c308.87$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.221,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes23c308.02$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.011,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed No72c254.91$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1518550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a73…a498backed Yes17c249.59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.83522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc80…77b4backed Yes38c249.19$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+165.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c244.82$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.014,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes45c235.11$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.191,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes17c232.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.8613930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c229.68$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.382,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes13c218.77$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.3346743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c203.29$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.381,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c176.5$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf97b…c751backed Yes24c172.84$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.961735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes47c165.56$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9248331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c155.48$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e0…d131backed Yes17c146.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8677…9724backed Yes30c134.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.15540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes79c134.04$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9881234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c133.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.142,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c129.54$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.63,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c125$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.52,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes14c120$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1031679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce5f…9077backed Yes21c113.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+139.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29ad…8d47backed Yes18c110.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.244643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes16c106.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.372419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…07cfbacked No11c105$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83324.2%8 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c99.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9126426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No76c99.51$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6341767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes24c97.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.411,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes20c96.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8285330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No51c93.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c8…bd6bbacked Yes24c92.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.632711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed Yes44c86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1645162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes21c85.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6331029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes17c82.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6874926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No79c81.28$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.217355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes29c75.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5632818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c4…b153backed Yes24c75.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.274864.6%31 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes23c74.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4461659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes25c73.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5655942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes18c73.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2445236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86c2…4785backed Yes24c69.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.143243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+36.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed Yes16c69.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.319162.6%57 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes30c69.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.351450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ef…2f74backed Yes22c68.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.35837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes17c67.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.142638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes69c65.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.118016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes17c63.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No80c57.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6342976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes30c52.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9114632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes58c50.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No54c50.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3629922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes80c50.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1331341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c50.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.749,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes26c49.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.491435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No46c43.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7821848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No54c42.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.061,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2e…c9e1backed No36c40.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6620431.9%65 W · 139 L-14.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d29…c502backed No75c38.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.134261.9%26 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No79c37.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1929558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No75c34.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.582,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No46c32.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7322344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No77c31.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6319259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No63c31.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2335843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d84…2a04backed No77c31.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2762…7fc6backed No78c30.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.96850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbef0…bd7abacked Yes37c28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.641540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5fb…4b6ebacked No76c22.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.291040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No76c22.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9726169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.681029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a28…0e02backed No74c19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.014452.3%23 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No78c18.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5910444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f7…53e0backed No78c18.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.381338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-47%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes79c18.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.831,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No75c14.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.223,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8be2…214bbacked No80c14.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73520%7 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.