Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a3e24ed3363c56d984c95316fb2d5dbda53e4b1b01a7b78bd22a405ded92e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 3,865$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,632$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.7 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 19c | 1,611$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.99 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 59c | 1,140$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.95 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 847.1$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 13c | 639.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.2 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 32c | 518.41$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.41 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 488.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 15c | 421.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.78 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 379.64$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.1 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 359.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 359.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 354.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 15c | 330.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.93 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 27c | 309.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.87 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 308.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.22 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 308.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.01 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 72c | 254.91$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 17c | 249.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…77b4backed Yes | 38c | 249.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 244.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 45c | 235.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 17c | 232.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 229.68$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.38 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 13c | 218.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.33 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 203.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 176.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…c751backed Yes | 24c | 172.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 47c | 165.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 155.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e0…d131backed Yes | 17c | 146.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 30c | 134.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 79c | 134.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 133.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 129.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…9077backed Yes | 21c | 113.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 18c | 110.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 16c | 106.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 24c | 97.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 20c | 96.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 93.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…bd6bbacked Yes | 24c | 92.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 44c | 86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 21c | 85.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 17c | 82.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 79c | 81.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 29c | 75.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed Yes | 24c | 75.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 23c | 74.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 25c | 73.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 18c | 73.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 24c | 69.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 16c | 69.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 69.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…2f74backed Yes | 22c | 68.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 17c | 67.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 69c | 65.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 17c | 63.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 57.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 30c | 52.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 58c | 50.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 54c | 50.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 80c | 50.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 50.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes | 26c | 49.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 46c | 43.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 54c | 42.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 75c | 38.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 37.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 34.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 77c | 31.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 63c | 31.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d84…2a04backed No | 77c | 31.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…7fc6backed No | 78c | 30.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…bd7abacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…4b6ebacked No | 76c | 22.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 76c | 22.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 78c | 18.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…53e0backed No | 78c | 18.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 79c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 14.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked No | 80c | 14.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.