MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb952404916028876d7962f0e76c3d7d8874fc03f1de093829602ba1ed99fd0dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Minnesota Twins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 5,976$3,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.23 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 3,778$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.55 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 2,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 1,835$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.35 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 1,458$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.94 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 1,100$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 877.54$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 720.68$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.27 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 338.64$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.62 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Minnesota Twins | 15c | 234.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 231.89$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 228.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Twins | 16c | 223.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 183.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 146.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 113$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 101.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 94.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 65.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 62.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 57.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 37.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 36.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 29.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.