Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb96a437e235090dd5ae0273bdb794d1aa49fc1832865ba97aabb9bdacdc45f13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 30c | 218.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 210.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 209.23$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 33c | 168.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 22c | 120.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 109.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 105.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 99.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 95.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 74c | 87.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 86.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 29c | 86.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 25c | 80.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 76c | 79.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 35c | 79.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 73.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 71.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 62.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 23c | 55.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 29c | 54.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 53.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 29c | 51.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…813bbacked Yes | 25c | 44.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 42.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 27c | 40.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 71c | 39.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 39.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…aca7backed No | 79c | 37.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 31c | 35.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 33.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 33c | 31.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 29.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 78c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 71c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 68c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.