Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4494b79e6856d8635806f2455549533dfb8692ccea8070bf43fd533fdeff1780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 2c | 628.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 15c | 298.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 33c | 254.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 201.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 18c | 184$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 69c | 173.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 154.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 123.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 15c | 123.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 68c | 110.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 9c | 108.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 53c | 106.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 40c | 101.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 40c | 96.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 61c | 96.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 28c | 96.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 15c | 94.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 33c | 90.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 53c | 88.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…8508backed Yes | 24c | 86.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 12c | 84.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…05c3backed Yes | 66c | 75.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed No | 34c | 73.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 64c | 73.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 42c | 60.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked No | 31c | 52.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 78c | 49.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 34c | 47.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 24c | 42.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…aca7backed Yes | 74c | 40.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 39.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 34c | 39.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed No | 39c | 36.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 34.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…cdc7backed Yes | 65c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 29.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 63c | 29.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 37c | 27.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 67c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 80c | 18.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 64c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…1891backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…ce48backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.