La Liga · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9745c525d588f86f910750cc960e0b386ab1b26da004ed1f920e2058518c5d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 18c | 3,361$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.21 | 988 | 33.4%330 W · 658 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 1,937$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.47 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 21c | 1,088$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 836 | 40%334 W · 502 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 20c | 849.52$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.38 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 20c | 748.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 614.04$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.64 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 22.9%22 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 73c | 413.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 80c | 409.36$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 26c | 382$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 615 | 57.7%355 W · 260 L | +41.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 70c | 339.5$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 228 | 59.6%136 W · 92 L | +18.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 26c | 245.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 21c | 218.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed Under | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Under | 72c | 139.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 19c | 122$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 23c | 106.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 22c | 103$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 77c | 103$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…da4fbacked Under | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 22c | 77.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 23c | 64.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 595 | 55.5%330 W · 265 L | +31.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 20c | 51.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 452 | 50.2%227 W · 225 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 79c | 40.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…23f8backed Under | 76c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Elche CF (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Elche CF (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)Elche CF won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5)Elche CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.