MLB · resolved market
Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9807c0d49c1f5e2e20f4b4371a90b604b9cc231d32a7a566d6ebf620f8d50a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 12c | 3,573$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.86 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 59c | 2,300$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.5 | 254 | 16.1%41 W · 213 L | -15.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 45c | 1,582$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.31 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 667.08$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 225.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…45e0backed Yes | 45c | 222.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…af76backed Yes | 44c | 183.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Yes | 10c | 160.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 56c | 147.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6065…6d3ebacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 87.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 22c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-2this page
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-0No won
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-1No won
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-3No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-0No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-1No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-2No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-3Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.