MLB · resolved market
Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37313813ec70f2fe7b7dd8c2c2463c0d5fd11f829aab11c4d4c9c9df6faf6a2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 23c | 13,630$3,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172.59 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 77c | 11,079$8,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570.53 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…f33ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,340$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 75c | 856.48$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…b0d6backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 69c | 385.42$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.95 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 371.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 289.33$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 38c | 262.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…af76backed Yes | 28c | 172.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6d…b98bbacked Yes | 26c | 126.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 80c | 104$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…37b3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…5d01backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…b707backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 62.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…eb96backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857d…179cbacked Yes | 25c | 50.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb79a…090cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…4664backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 58c | 32.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…21f9backed No | 74c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-3this page
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-0No won
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-1No won
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-2No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-0No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-1No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-2No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-3Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.