MLB · resolved market
Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc593663bc0dbb64e5d3283876af76e37b17539dbc8245c184ceea4da1285a305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4483…c565backed Yes | 24c | 1,410$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.79 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 1,178$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.54 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7670…5204backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 49c | 914.77$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.72 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 75c | 718.9$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.18 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 597.62$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.38 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…b0d6backed Yes | 24c | 511.71$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 384.62$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 48c | 350.26$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 29c | 239.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 66c | 225.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…9239backed Yes | 26c | 189.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b5…e11dbacked Yes | 59c | 186.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 64cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 180$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65db…3b5cbacked Yes | 22c | 170$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Yes | 15c | 166.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Yes | 48c | 156.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…45e0backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…b683backed Yes | 59c | 113.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…f7d3backed Yes | 21c | 102$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 100.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +254.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 31c | 93.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…a9b9backed No | 70c | 76.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 78c | 56.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…eb96backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a5…ca57backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…53cebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…b9dcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-3this page
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-0No won
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-1No won
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-2No won
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 4-3No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-0No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-1No won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 4-2No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.