NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Vikings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb982f7a74978128d071a0b7ca90d083bcd0e4bb70010fe4742fd45f541877e89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriots of Patriots , Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Vikings | 55c | 14,534$7,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,981.83 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Patriots | 45c | 8,439$3,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,632.44 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Patriots | 45c | 4,333$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.92 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Vikings | 17c | 2,466$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.56 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Patriots | 48c | 1,023$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.14 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…7a36backed Vikings | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Patriots | 45c | 844.05$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.65 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Vikings | 2c | 606.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Patriots | 45c | 588$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.4 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Vikings | 11c | 582.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Patriots | 46c | 476.54$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.33 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Vikings | 48c | 415.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…a7d4backed Vikings | 24c | 409.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Patriots | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Vikings | 54c | 320.27$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Vikings | 4c | 280$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Patriots | 64c | 275.5$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Patriots | 55c | 264.82$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.91 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Patriots | 75c | 252$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Vikings | 49c | 208.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…972cbacked Vikings | 55c | 206.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Patriots | 45c | 206.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Patriots | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Patriots | 49c | 202.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Vikings | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Patriots | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +164%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Vikings | 36c | 194.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Vikings | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Patriots | 45c | 159.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Patriots | 52c | 138.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Vikings | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Vikings | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Patriots | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Patriots | 62c | 93.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Patriots | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Patriots | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Patriots | 46c | 64.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Vikings | 54c | 52.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefad…ebd8backed Vikings | 54c | 52.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Vikings | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…a614backed Vikings | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Patriots | 51c | 39.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Patriots | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Patriots | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b6b9backed Vikings | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x887c…e405backed Vikings | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Patriots | 46c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +522.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.