Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60–61°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9a40e13d58cddf036f468630ca41e254aaa7a1c7161b0896a4bf36590cd3ff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e4…d9cebacked Yes | 3c | 2,050$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 65c | 1,552$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 43c | 862.54$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.83 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…6fb5backed No | 73c | 439.57$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…89b8backed No | 69c | 288.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 75c | 271.31$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 25c | 268.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.36 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 34c | 263.46$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 59c | 248.46$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 71c | 224.04$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.19 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 58c | 202.94$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…5585backed No | 61c | 192.77$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 49c | 186.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 40c | 185.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.19 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 65c | 167.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 8c | 148.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.77 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 28c | 146.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.66 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 77c | 129$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 34c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…a72ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 40cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…245abacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…31abbacked Yes | 41c | 86.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 31c | 83.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…6958backed Yes | 62c | 79.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 31c | 68.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x043a…5a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…e6c5backed Yes | 71c | 56.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb130…6ee2backed Yes | 51c | 56.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 74c | 56.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaad…a862backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +171%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11da…08d8backed No | 63c | 41.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…c8a6backed Yes | 42c | 38.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed No | 38c | 33.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…1b4ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 30.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…f4c3backed No | 69c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…8e24backed Yes | 72c | 18.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60–61°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58–59°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64–65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 66–67°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.