Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cc4de20b6f13f546c29c8420bb7014c37a965938f9f44af8073402001868448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 5c | 678.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 32c | 528.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 25c | 358.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 4c | 312$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 57c | 234.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.62 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 51c | 184.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…2f53backed Yes | 38c | 183$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 165.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 29c | 165.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 102 | 29.4%30 W · 72 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…4635backed No | 62c | 163$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 66c | 160.74$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…a72ebacked No | 11c | 137.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 40cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 45c | 119.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 21c | 114.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 33c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 62c | 103.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 25c | 100.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4086…c7fcbacked Yes | 27c | 92.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…3d96backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…245abacked Yes | 30c | 89.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 55c | 80.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…6958backed Yes | 35c | 77.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 24c | 72.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 56c | 69.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 27c | 67.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…3356backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…c2b3backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 48.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…9851backed Yes | 52c | 42.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 35c | 33.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb95a…da63backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed No | 69c | 27.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…bee0backed No | 63c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 60c | 22.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…e6c5backed No | 66c | 21.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…8020backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58–59°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60–61°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64–65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 66–67°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.