MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9ace8698c3359c9919fd46de7fdf3b3ff8b8cb0ea103df9cb768a4c542a58a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 1,215$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.82 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 1,034$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.91 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 953.63$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.37 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 231.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 219.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 215.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…c19abacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 214.49$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 209.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.88 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 205.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 120.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 99.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 96.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 96.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 89.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 53.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 34.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 25.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.