MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0be85f69d584ed8e0667b3021dba83f94b7900a169e0db0365d2e6578ea360ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 60c | 20,179$12,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,092.85 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 5,574$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,344.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Over | 40c | 5,403$2,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.73 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 1,930$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 40c | 1,748$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.52 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 4c | 1,600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 4c | 1,600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 4c | 1,600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 40c | 1,588$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.87 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 1,024$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.72 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…ff0fbacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ab…cdafbacked Under | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 57c | 999.89$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.12 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 40c | 975$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 897.89$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 58c | 868.3$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.12 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 767.6$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 40c | 727$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 59c | 690.25$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.25 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 51c | 655.53$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.32 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 558.34$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 543.5$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 58c | 366.74$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.71 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 43c | 345.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 315$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Over | 41c | 314.63$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.63 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 46c | 249.3$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 60c | 198$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 42c | 191.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.95 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 47c | 187.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 49c | 120.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 120.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 110.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 41c | 109.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0207…c938backed Under | 54c | 91.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 81.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 49c | 79.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 50c | 69.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 46c | 61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 41c | 50.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Under | 50c | 34.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 40c | 30.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…4cc2backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Over | 47c | 29.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…86b1backed Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 26.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…d241backed Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…b8e1backed Under | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 22.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Under | 60c | 21.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 61c | 19.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 57c | 18.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.