Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9b3f6ec18019086f6d49f34f0c127d21bc66a6256fa52bb5703833bb9f27f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 706.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 556.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 22c | 343.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 281.68$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 219.1$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 17c | 178$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 170.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 151.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 110.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 87.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 21c | 76.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1f…41aebacked No | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 78c | 62.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 18c | 56.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 22c | 54.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 74c | 48.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 24c | 47.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 24c | 46.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 23c | 45.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 80c | 37.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 27.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 69c | 26.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.