TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,774

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,301 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes29c1,405$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.1342036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes31c1,077$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.944,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes28c883.74$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2433232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c707.9$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.271,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No71c395$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.551,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c373.76$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.768,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No69c370.8$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.952,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes33c324.41$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0631936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8455954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8477555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes17c273.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.291,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff32…7da9backed Yes24c253.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.836536.9%24 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No70c249.66$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.842,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes31c248.56$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9716144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c240.39$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.414,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No72c226.15$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c206.63$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.795,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c205.26$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.373,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes28c199.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.591,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b33…9f80backed Yes30c199.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.064141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes26c191.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9163143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c182.49$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.74,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c176.22$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.868,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes30c173$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.081,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes11c165.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.918636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No70c160$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes28c158.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.954,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes21c145.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9663538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c142$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.895,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No78c126.82$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.362,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes27c93.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.212,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes27c92.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.791,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No61c89.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.781,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes21c83.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes31c77.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1240352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No65c76.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1823560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No77c76.12$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes30c75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes36c69.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.326,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c66.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No76c66.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.822,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c61.64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.649,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No77c61.64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1812876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8471…5566backed Yes29c60.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.823959%23 W · 16 L+7.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes22c60.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad5b…faddbacked Yes25c59.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No74c57.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.952,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25e5…d09cbacked No71c56.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.263063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No72c54.18$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2825954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c52.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.534457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No70c48.92$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.872,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No70c48.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3216859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No71c46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ac…647bbacked Yes28c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64965.3%32 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes34c41.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes27c40.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.032,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes27c38.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.241625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No74c37.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.751,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba3…9cabbacked Yes31c35.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No78c33.12$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2910857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes36c32.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.616832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.644,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c28.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.152,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No71c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8347569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No77c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9899571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.254,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c21.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.772,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No70c21.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3822064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No72c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8125868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2352…1d44backed No73c20.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d8…a8cebacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.29361.3%57 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.229443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45ca…729abacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x047b…83b1backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.613452.2%70 W · 64 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No66c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.461,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No68c18.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.041,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No71c17.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0815369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No73c17.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.154,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.417165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No79c13.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.822,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.