Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e9e47bdb0f610c15d9a28cd04e7d1b70800c2872938887c1e5477514557bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 29c | 1,405$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.13 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,077$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 28c | 883.74$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.24 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 707.9$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.27 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 395$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 373.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 370.8$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 33c | 324.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 273.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 24c | 253.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 249.66$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 31c | 248.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 240.39$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 226.15$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 206.63$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 205.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 199.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 30c | 199.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 26c | 191.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 182.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 176.22$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 30c | 173$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 11c | 165.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 158.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 145.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 142$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 126.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 93.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 92.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 89.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 21c | 83.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 31c | 77.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 65c | 76.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 76.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 69.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 66.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 66.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 61.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 29c | 60.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 60.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…faddbacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 57.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 71c | 56.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 72c | 54.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 52.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 48.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 70c | 48.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 41.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 27c | 40.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 27c | 38.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 37.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…9cabbacked Yes | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 78c | 33.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 36c | 32.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 70c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…1d44backed No | 73c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ca…729abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 71c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.