Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9b950b04bb3d91bb35b03fe832a03e544e2b469957497740d9ffd39aa7a3402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 453.43$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.62 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 40c | 273.47$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 254.14$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 74c | 252.18$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 223.96$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 158.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 60c | 132.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 39c | 121.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 30c | 116.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 41c | 111.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 11c | 100.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 51c | 96.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 80.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 57c | 74.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 65.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 62.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 60.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 67c | 60.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 59.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 44c | 56.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 53.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 53.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…e79dbacked Yes | 34c | 47.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 46.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 39c | 45.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 45.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 45.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 34c | 43.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 39c | 38.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 35.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 41c | 35.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 34.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 30.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 28.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 64c | 24.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 24.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 249 | 31.7%79 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.