MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9c4eea76eac93584e0f1616c1e1f5c2b5f84bede32f496545dff8a90d5003bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 26c | 3,489$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,576.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 1,904$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 58c | 1,379$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 566.54$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.94 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 370.29$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 311.55$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.67 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 301.38$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Under | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 42c | 226.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 38c | 198.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 187.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 50c | 164$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 31c | 151.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 60c | 96.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 12c | 83.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 46c | 79.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 60c | 75.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 58c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Under | 40c | 73.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 54c | 65.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 47c | 57.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Under | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 48c | 50.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 70c | 33.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 54c | 31.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 44c | 29.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 77c | 20.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 75c | 13.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.