MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b0aefbb579a48c87292e77c8f16438e7ca3f13098ef8464b18c4ad279353f7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 2,027$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.46 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 1,444$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,287$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.05 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 1,279$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -9.2wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 1,253$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,035$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.3 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 1,009$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.77 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 973.37$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 914.52$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 449.21$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 436.15$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.38 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 420$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 401.87$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 251.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Atlanta Braves | 60c | 207.1$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 204.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Mariners | 14c | 177.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 171.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners | 31c | 128.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 119.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Atlanta Braves | 60c | 98.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Atlanta Braves | 60c | 87.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 86.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 73.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 73.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Seattle Mariners | 22c | 73.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 47.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 42.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 37.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 35.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 34.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 24.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.