Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba0edac5d95406929625d66be0ed15d0c2d6111cf069a552e56ddab3e1a796c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 496.73$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 425$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 409.86$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 359.67$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 330.57$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 6c | 319.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 318.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 304.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 236.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 190$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 165.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 30c | 142.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 139.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…6db5backed No | 67c | 120$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 34c | 89.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 88.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…da9ebacked Yes | 39c | 74.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 72.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 32c | 70.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 60.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 48.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 46.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 45.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…5226backed Yes | 67c | 43.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 48c | 38.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 36.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 61c | 30.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 62c | 27.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 26.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 59c | 25.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…12e9backed Yes | 50c | 23.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 22.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 17.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 62c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 63c | 16.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.