NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba17b8a17704949692bd0f791542478becb9c23a58012bfc13ab227d20831ad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,444 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 6,507$3,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,806.06 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 5,026$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.91 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.99 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 56c | 2,579$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.57 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 1,790$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.03 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 44c | 1,400$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 354.07$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 57c | 350.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 60c | 327.95$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.18 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 55c | 290.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 56c | 210$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 54c | 205$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 168.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 40c | 138$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 40c | 96.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 33c | 84.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 28c | 82.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 67c | 78.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 40c | 71.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fe…98a0backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…029dbacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 79c | 63.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 64c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 63c | 24.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…dc32backed Under | 44c | 22.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Over | 56c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x303f…278ebacked Over | 65c | 17.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Islanders vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Islanders vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.