NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74fb6c960eff6e4dfde5f311a32c82dbc2ce1e638e280008972cb0a6e1957a40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,727 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Under | 56c | 194,844$109,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109,060.89 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over | 44c | 79,915$35,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,752.24 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 44c | 68,182$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,181.82 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 26,048$11,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,586.88 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 54c | 10,172$5,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,492.95 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 45c | 8,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,674.99 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 8,400$3,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,703.99 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 7,107$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,972.44 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 55c | 2,135$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.25 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 45c | 1,504$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.98 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 55c | 977$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.35 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 55c | 944.37$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.4 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Under | 56c | 625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 60c | 624$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 62c | 608.15$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.44 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 40c | 525.85$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.42 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 44c | 521$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Over | 47c | 317$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 53c | 224.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under | 63c | 221.6$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Under | 56c | 178.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 176.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Over | 46c | 152.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Over | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 145.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…20e9backed Over | 46c | 100.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 44c | 100.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…063bbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 44c | 86.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 56c | 84.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 74.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 55c | 73.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 55c | 73.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Over | 52c | 63.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 48c | 53.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Over | 45c | 43.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 45c | 38.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 326 | 48.2%157 W · 169 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Under | 36c | 36.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…1838backed Over | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…b921backed Under | 55c | 25.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 62c | 23.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Islanders vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Islanders vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.