Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba353c83874eb735c25c6bb893aaf4c1f4e9f11952c5fb9a086a8966046cc879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed No | 6c | 35,133$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.61 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 7c | 17,386$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.49 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed No | 4c | 16,533$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.87 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 3c | 13,827$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.22 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 6c | 12,520$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 30cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 4c | 10,400$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.11 | 201 | 40.8%82 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 6c | 10,100$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 7c | 7,142$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 1c | 6,731$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 3c | 4,750$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.94 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…28f7backed No | 9c | 4,320$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 7c | 3,462$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.52 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 3c | 3,266$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 5c | 2,515$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 4c | 2,199$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 6c | 1,917$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 5c | 1,250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 120 | 20.8%25 W · 95 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…abcfbacked No | 8c | 1,225$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 7c | 1,199$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22f…6d67backed No | 8c | 1,187$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 4c | 1,051$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…87bcbacked No | 5c | 1,026$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked No | 4c | 875$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked No | 5c | 800$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 5c | 779.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 6c | 435.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 369 | 56.9%210 W · 159 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 5c | 391.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 6c | 388.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 9c | 383$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 332.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 117 | 12%14 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 6c | 302.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…2241backed No | 8c | 235$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | +21.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 7c | 177.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 209 | 31.6%66 W · 143 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 9c | 149.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9523…56e0backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will Exeter City FC win on 2026-01-10?No won
- Will Manchester City FC vs. Exeter City FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.