Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba4fe1db56614d69ab3e9ccc495f85e54c864fc157bdef7e8f79f07336cef920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ca2…f813backed Yes | 59c | 1,097$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f73…2121backed Yes | 57c | 1,044$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…65c1backed Yes | 59c | 1,034$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…1006backed Yes | 59c | 967.15$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…e363backed Yes | 59c | 940.47$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 46c | 539.98$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.49 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 60c | 356$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.41 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 42c | 187.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 61c | 155$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…f0a4backed Yes | 70c | 71.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes | 62c | 54.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 52c | 50.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…8ca8backed No | 29c | 36.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 45c | 33.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…6feebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…013fbacked Yes | 59c | 16.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.