Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb111e76903a76324c8ede58e8b782747147d750f65b52cd121f4f7bdb2a90cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 530.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 507.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 305.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 35c | 214.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 7c | 154.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 49c | 145.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 131.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 129.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 66c | 127.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 39c | 114.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 111.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 107.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 105.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 93.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 57c | 84.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 49c | 70.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 59c | 50.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 77c | 50.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 24c | 49.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 55c | 40.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…1271backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 77c | 34.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 39c | 27.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 25.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 52c | 24.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a4…8ee1backed Yes | 57c | 21.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 57c | 20.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 60c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.