Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c3562c0f1a106454ff458586f679b55549e9d11b405d063a0681a39ce3ab70c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 2,518$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.01 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 543.97$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 468$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 441.88$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.24 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 28c | 393.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 351.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 42c | 326.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.82 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 247.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 70c | 245$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 225$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 71c | 191.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 164.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 54c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 140$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 137$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 132.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 131.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 128$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 126.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 116.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 113.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 111$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 51c | 108.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 54c | 102.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 95.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 53c | 94.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 93.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 35c | 91.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 90.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 55c | 83.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 83.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 61c | 79.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 78.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 68c | 73.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 69.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 18c | 65.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 47c | 64.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 57.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 55.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 54.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…9ebcbacked Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 43.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 42.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 51c | 40.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 38.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 32.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 39c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 68c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b7…7506backed No | 70c | 27.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 38c | 26.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 49c | 26.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 46c | 24.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 23.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 51c | 22.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…5312backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 71c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 17.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 67c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 15.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.