Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf8041dab67abf0afa50d9c0d26df13e9c5a1c11750d0af6c37487c3eee8f0a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 343.66$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 304.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 238.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 217.55$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 186.07$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 139.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 131.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 113.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 73.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 71.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 22c | 59.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 57.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 55.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 55.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 35c | 55.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 53.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 52.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 50.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 46.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 45.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 40.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 43c | 33.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 64c | 32.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 38c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 26.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 24.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 64c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 17.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.