NHL · resolved market
KHL: Admiral Vladivostok vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb1e76a628e0db8752750aaa5c2c32f3149324ccc4d53693bdd8de88af75f466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Admiral Vladivostok, Sibir Novosibirsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea66…3439backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 41c | 1,047$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719e…0a21backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 905$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…4468backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 41c | 904$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…8eaebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 41c | 860$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…bde0backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 728$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Admiral Vladivostok | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…6448backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 441$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 58c | 430.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…0ca7backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 419$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…e9f9backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 41c | 376$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…efbebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 41c | 333$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…5331backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 41c | 311$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…a1cfbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 249$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 42c | 220$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 492 | 49.6%244 W · 248 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…e453backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 203$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f5…027fbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 197$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…ed50backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 176$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 40c | 172.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…c7febacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 65c | 160.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc879…30a4backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 42c | 158.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…313cbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 142$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 43c | 135.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2a…e5a3backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 130$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…1cb8backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 127$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…4fd0backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 114$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…e780backed Admiral Vladivostok | 57c | 100.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Admiral Vladivostok | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Admiral Vladivostok | 56c | 82.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…c066backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.