WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Sky
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb432b5eb8f0cb09ec64fd19ca461e296d081fc631a0623f501bd57dcb846c92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Mercury, Sky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Sky | 14c | 5,050$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Sky | 5c | 3,816$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sky | 9c | 2,339$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Sky | 13c | 2,017$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Sky | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Sky | 12c | 1,258$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Sky | 10c | 736.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sky | 14c | 728.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sky | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sky | 15c | 680$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Sky | 11c | 416$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Sky | 12c | 333.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sky | 12c | 326$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sky | 12c | 300.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Sky | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sky | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Sky | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Sky | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sky | 11c | 164.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Sky | 21c | 163.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…8ebfbacked Sky | 20c | 107.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Sky | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…b8e9backed Sky | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sky | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sky | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…6ecebacked Sky | 15c | 76.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Mercury | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1098backed Sky | 38c | 35.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f2…5bb5backed Mercury | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.