Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb4846ca32917960fa6f67fe94a69d25d260d0822c562bd126c5eb668e806df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 72c | 2,327$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.56 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 14c | 731.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 704.72$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.16 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 72c | 480.25$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 444.73$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 77c | 279.76$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a4…856ebacked No | 72c | 241.79$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 220$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 173$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 173$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…4bdebacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…efddbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 78c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 22c | 98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 95.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 72.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…5f4ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…ade2backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…ce9bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Yes | 21c | 56.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 27c | 46.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 71c | 32.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked No | 80c | 30.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 79c | 18.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw?this page
- Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-13?Yes won
- Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-08-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.