Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-08-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa84df5735f558b56dba1c53b69c732af75839a9f4f2186c94c8b73b3ccba422b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 40c | 4,597$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.25 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 61c | 3,301$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.18 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 39c | 2,970$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.3 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…cea7backed No | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.99 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 60c | 1,632$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.69 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…b823backed Yes | 15c | 1,418$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 36c | 1,208$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.29 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…f11ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,055$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 41c | 784$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.44 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 39c | 732.54$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.69 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 8c | 614$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 39c | 497.36$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.97 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked No | 60c | 464.34$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.74 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 61c | 437.15$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.49 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 12c | 400.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes | 41c | 357.12$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 61c | 327.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 22c | 290.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…f041backed Yes | 14c | 240.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 219.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Yes | 14c | 208.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x916d…bf9abacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 187.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…efddbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 61c | 121.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed Yes | 40c | 103.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 13c | 99.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 57c | 90.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 43c | 79.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 61c | 76.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 59c | 63.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 28c | 58.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0ad9backed No | 72c | 58.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd740…abcdbacked No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 61c | 52.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…6a4dbacked No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf15c…5b13backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed No | 73c | 28.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 40c | 26.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf854…8e03backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 59c | 22.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 59c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-08-13?this page
- Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-13?Yes won
- Will PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.